| Title: |
Climate change drives record-breaking heat in Iceland and Greenland challenging cold adapted ecosystems and societies |
| Authors: |
Kew, Sarah; Jensen, Caroline Drost; Bjornsson, Halldor; Pinto, Izidine; Philip, Sjoukje; Vahlberg, Maja; Thompson, Vikki; Barnes, Clair; Clarke, Ben; Gravgaard Askjær, Thomas; Baumgart, Nick Julien; Raju, Emmanuel; Cullen, Miriam; Otto, Frederikke |
| Source: |
Kew , S , Jensen , C D , Bjornsson , H , Pinto , I , Philip , S , Vahlberg , M , Thompson , V , Barnes , C , Clarke , B , Gravgaard Askjær , T , Baumgart , N J , Raju , E , Cullen , M & Otto , F 2025 , Climate change drives record-breaking heat in Iceland and Greenland challenging cold adapted ecosystems and societies . World Weather Attribution . https://doi.org/10.25560/122305 |
| Publisher Information: |
World Weather Attribution |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
University of Copenhagen: Research / Forskning ved Københavns Universitet |
| Description: |
Main findings ● A heat wave in a cold-adapted environment can look quite different from other parts of the world. In Greenland and Iceland infrastructure is built for cold weather, meaning during a heatwave ice melt can lead to flooding and damage roads and infrastructure. In Iceland, bituminous bleeding in the roads created dangerous conditions for drivers. In Greenland, unusual warmth causes sea ice to break up, which threatens communities that depend on it for hunting, fishing, and travel. This affects food security, mobility, scientific research, and Indigenous knowledge. Warmer seas are also shifting fish populations—while cod and mackerel are increasing, cold-water species like shrimp and halibut are moving north, causing economic challenges. Additionally, more seaweed growth and less available fodder have forced farmers to import hay from Iceland, increasing costs and creating cross-border dependencies. ● Temperatures over Iceland as observed this May are record-breaking, more than 13°C hotter than the 1991-2020 average May daily maximum temperatures. In today’s climate, which globally has warmed by 1.3°C, the 7-day maximum and temperatures observed in 2025 in the study region have a return time of about once every 100 years. In a 1.3°C colder climate such temperatures would however have been extremely rare. ● When combining the observation-based analysis with climate models, to quantify the role of climate change in this 7-day heat event, we find that climate models underestimate the increase in heat found in observations, but not by as much as in other regions. Based on the combined analysis we conclude that climate change made the extreme heat about 3°C hotter and about 40 times more likely. There is more uncertainty in the estimate for the increase in likelihood and notably it is much smaller than in other heat attribution studies in extratropical latitudes. Given the known underestimation of temperature trends in climate models, this is thus likely an underestimation. ● At a global warming of 2.6°C ... |
| Document Type: |
book |
| File Description: |
application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| DOI: |
10.25560/122305 |
| Availability: |
https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/da/publications/fb857e05-aaed-49bb-9308-86025b88f7d4; https://doi.org/10.25560/122305; https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/493979618/Scientific-report-Iceland-Greenland-heat-2.pdf |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.DAEA271E |
| Database: |
BASE |