| Title: |
Variation in the COVID-19 infection-fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis |
| Authors: |
Sorensen, RJD; Barber, RM; Pigott, DM; Carter, A; Spencer, CN; Ostroff, SM; Reiner, RC; Abbafati, C; Adolph, C; Allorant, A; Amlag, JO; Aravkin, AY; Bachmeier, SD; Bang-Jensen, BL; Bisignano, C; Bloom, SS; Castellano, R; Castro, E; Collins, JK; Comfort, H; Dai, XC; Dangel, WJ; Dapper, C; Deen, A; Earl, L; Erickson, M; Ewald, SB; Ferrari, AJ; Flaxman, AD; Frostad, JJ; Fullman, N; Gamkrelidze, A; Giles, JR; Guo, GR; He, JW; Helak, M; Hulland, EN; Huntley, BM; Kereselidze, M; Lazzar-Atwood, A; LeGrand, KE; Lindstrom, A; Linebarger, E; Lozano, R; Magistro, B; Malta, DC; Mansson, J; Herrera, AMM; Marinho, F; Mirkuzie, AH; Mokdad, AH; Monasta, L; Naghavi, M; Nassereldine, H; Nomura, S; Odell, CM; Olana, LT; Pasovic, M; Pease, SA; Penberthy, L; Reinke, G; Ribeiro, ALP; Santomauro, DF; Sholokhov, A; Skhvitaridze, N; Spurlock, EE; Syailendrawati, R; Topor-Madry, R; Vo, AT; Vos, T; Walcott, R; Walker, A; Watson, S; Wiysonge, CS; Worku, NA; Zheng, P; Hay, SI; Gakidou, E; Murray, CJL |
| Contributors: |
Sorensen, Rjd; Barber, Rm; Pigott, Dm; Carter, A; Spencer, Cn; Ostroff, Sm; Reiner, Rc; Abbafati, C; Adolph, C; Allorant, A; Amlag, Jo; Aravkin, Ay; Bachmeier, Sd; Bang-Jensen, Bl; Bisignano, C; Bloom, S; Castellano, R; Castro, E; Collins, Jk; Comfort, H; Dai, Xc; Dangel, Wj; Dapper, C; Deen, A; Earl, L; Erickson, M; Ewald, Sb; Ferrari, Aj; Flaxman, Ad; Frostad, Jj; Fullman, N; Gamkrelidze, A; Giles, Jr; Guo, Gr; He, Jw; Helak, M; Hulland, En; Huntley, Bm; Kereselidze, M; Lazzar-Atwood, A; Legrand, Ke; Lindstrom, A; Linebarger, E; Lozano, R; Magistro, B; Malta, Dc; Mansson, J; Herrera, Amm; Marinho, F; Mirkuzie, Ah; Mokdad, Ah; Monasta, L; Naghavi, M; Nassereldine, H; Nomura, S; Odell, Cm; Olana, Lt; Pasovic, M; Pease, Sa; Penberthy, L; Reinke, G; Ribeiro, Alp; Santomauro, Df; Sholokhov, A; Skhvitaridze, N; Spurlock, Ee; Syailendrawati, R; Topor-Madry, R; Vo, At; Vos, T; Walcott, R; Walker, A; Watson, S; Wiysonge, C; Worku, Na; Zheng, P; Hay, Si; Gakidou, E; Murray, Cjl |
| Publisher Information: |
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC; STE 800, 230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10169 USA |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
Sapienza Università di Roma: CINECA IRIS |
| Subject Terms: |
infection fatality ratio; covid; vaccination |
| Description: |
Background The infection-fatality ratio (IFR) is a metric that quantifies the likelihood of an individual dying once infected with a pathogen. Understanding the determinants of IFR variation for COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has direct implications for mitigation efforts with respect to clinical practice, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the prioritisation of risk groups for targeted vaccine delivery. The IFR is also a crucial parameter in COVID-19 dynamic transmission models, providing a way to convert a population's mortality rate into an estimate of infections.Methods We estimated age-specific and all-age IFR by matching seroprevalence surveys to total COVID-19 mortality rates in a population. The term total COVID-19 mortality refers to an estimate of the total number of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19. After applying exclusion criteria to 5131 seroprevalence surveys, the IFR analyses were informed by 2073 all-age surveys and 718 age-specific surveys (3012 age-specific observations). When seroprevalence was reported by age group, we split total COVID-19 mortality into corresponding age groups using a Bayesian hierarchical model to characterise the non-linear age pattern of reported deaths for a given location. To remove the impact of vaccines on the estimated IFR age pattern, we excluded age-specific observations of seroprevalence and deaths that occurred after vaccines were introduced in a location. We estimated age-specific IFR with a non-linear meta-regression and used the resulting age pattern to standardise all-age IFR observations to the global age distribution. All IFR observations were adjusted for baseline and waning antibody-test sensitivity. We then modelled age-standardised IFR as a function of time, geography, and an ensemble of 100 of the top-performing covariate sets. The covariates included seven clinical predictors (eg, age-standardised obesity prevalence) and two measures of health system performance. Final estimates for 190 countries and territories, as ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/35219376; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000795611300022; volume:399; issue:10334; firstpage:1469; lastpage:1488; numberofpages:20; journal:THE LANCET; https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1664516 |
| DOI: |
10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02867-1 |
| Availability: |
https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1664516; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02867-1 |
| Rights: |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.E2441455 |
| Database: |
BASE |