| Title: |
Modelling African Swine Fever spread: scientific support for decision makers ; Modélisation de la propagation de la peste porcine africaine : appui scientifique auprès des décideurs |
| Authors: |
Andraud, Mathieu; Hammami, Pachka; Hayes, Brandon, Hastings; Vergne, Timothée; Machado, Gustavo; Rose, Nicolas |
| Contributors: |
Laboratoire de Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort ANSES; Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES); École nationale vétérinaire de Toulouse (ENVT); Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP); Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse)-Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse (Comue de Toulouse); Ifip; Inrae |
| Source: |
54èmes Journées de la Recherche Porcine; https://anses.hal.science/anses-04081897; 54èmes Journées de la Recherche Porcine, Ifip; Inrae, Feb 2022, Paris, France. pp.345-350; https://www.journees-recherche-porcine.com/texte/2022.php |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD; Ifip |
| Publication Year: |
2022 |
| Collection: |
Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier: HAL-UPS |
| Subject Terms: |
African Swine Fever; Modelling; Peste Porcine Africaine; Modelisation; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; [SDV.BA.MVSA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Veterinary medicine and animal Health; [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences |
| Subject Geographic: |
Paris; France |
| Description: |
National audience ; African Swine Fever (ASF) represents the main threat to swine production, with heavy economic consequences for both farmers and the food industry. The spread of the virus that causes ASF through Europe raises the issues of identifying transmission routes and assessing their relative contributions in order to provide insights to stakeholders for adapted surveillance and control measures. A simulation model was developed to assess ASF spread over the commercial swine network in France (BDPORC). The model was designed from raw movement data and actual farm characteristics. A metapopulation approach was used, with transmission processes at the herd level potentially leading, through a reaction-diffusion process, to external spread to epidemiologically connected herds. Three transmission routes were considered: local transmission (e.g. fomites, material exchange), movement of animals from infected to susceptible sites, and transit of trucks without physical animal exchange. Surveillance was based on prevalence and mortality detection thresholds, which triggered strict movement control in a 10-km radius around detected sites. Truck transit transmission was found to be sporadic, unlike physical movement of animals. Surveillance and control did not modify the geographic spread of the infection. While the absence of control measures led to secondary infections in 70% of the simulations, with a median of 10 infected herds, use of control measures reduced this percentage by half, with a mean of only one secondarily infected herd. ; La peste porcine africaine (PPA) représente une menace majeure pour la production porcine avec de lourdes conséquences économiques pour les éleveurs et l'industrie alimentaire. La propagation du virus à travers l'Europe soulève clairement la question de l'identification des voies de transmission et de leur contribution relative afin de fournir des informations aux parties prenantes pour une surveillance adaptée et des mesures de contrôle pertinentes. Un modèle de simulation a ... |
| Document Type: |
conference object |
| Language: |
French |
| Availability: |
https://anses.hal.science/anses-04081897; https://anses.hal.science/anses-04081897v1/document; https://anses.hal.science/anses-04081897v1/file/s06.pdf |
| Rights: |
https://about.hal.science/hal-authorisation-v1/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.E6CF282B |
| Database: |
BASE |