Magnetic resonance enterography to predict disabling disease in newly diagnosed Crohn’s disease:the METRIC-EF multivariable prediction model, multicentre diagnostic inception cohort study
| Title: | Magnetic resonance enterography to predict disabling disease in newly diagnosed Crohn’s disease:the METRIC-EF multivariable prediction model, multicentre diagnostic inception cohort study |
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| Authors: | Kumar, Shankar; Plumb, Andrew; Mallett, Sue; Clarke, Caroline; Parry, Tom; Weng, Jing Yi Jessica; Bhatnagar, Gauraang; Bloom, Stuart; Hamlin, John; Hart, Ailsa; Travis, Simon; Vega, Roser; Hameed, Maira; Bhagwanani, Anisha; Greenhalgh, Rebecca; Helbren, Emma; Stephenson, James A.; Zealley, Ian; Eze, Vivienne; Franklin, James; Corr, Alison; Gupta, Arun; Isaac, Elizabeth; Tolan, Damian; Hogg, William; Higginson, Antony; Cicchetti, Michela; Gupta, Sunita; Serran, Miguel; Raine, Tim; Ahmed, Mohamed; Brezina, Biljana; Patterson, Ilse; Lee, Louise; Pollok, Richard; Patel, Jaymin; Seward, Abigail; Baillie, Samantha; Chowdary, Kashfia; Philpott, Sue; Wadke, Anvi; Halligan, Steve; Taylor, Stuart A. |
| Source: | Kumar, S, Plumb, A, Mallett, S, Clarke, C, Parry, T, Weng, J Y J, Bhatnagar, G, Bloom, S, Hamlin, J, Hart, A, Travis, S, Vega, R, Hameed, M, Bhagwanani, A, Greenhalgh, R, Helbren, E, Stephenson, J A, Zealley, I, Eze, V, Franklin, J, Corr, A, Gupta, A, Isaac, E, Tolan, D, Hogg, W, Higginson, A, Cicchetti, M, Gupta, S, Serran, M, Raine, T, Ahmed, M, Brezina, B, Patterson, I, Lee, L, Pollok, R, Patel, J, Seward, A, Baillie, S, Chowdary, K, Philpott, S, Wadke, A, Halligan, S & Taylor, S A 2026, 'Magnetic resonance enterography to predict disabling disease .... |
| Publication Year: | 2026 |
| Collection: | Discovery - University of Dundee Online Publications |
| Subject Terms: | /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2700/2719; name=Health Policy |
| Description: | Background: The ability to predict whether patients with a new diagnosis of Crohn’s disease will develop disabling disease is an unmet clinical need. Magnetic resonance enterography is a first-line investigation for Crohn’s disease, but its role in prognostication is unknown. Objective(s): To improve prediction of disabling Crohn’s disease within 5 years of diagnosis by developing and internally evaluating a multivariable prediction model comprising clinical predictors and adding magnetic resonance enterography scores (Magnetic resonance Enterography Global Score, Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity and Lémann Index). To estimate the healthcare costs incurred within 5 years of Crohn’s disease diagnosis and to explore factors driving costs. Design: A multicentre diagnostic inception cohort. Setting: Nine National Health Service hospitals. Participants: Aged ≥ 16 years with newly diagnosed Crohn’s disease. Main outcome measures: Comparative predictive ability of prognostic models, including magnetic resonance enterography scores (Magnetic resonance Enterography Global Score, Simplified Magnetic Resonance Index of Activity and Lémann Index) versus a model based on clinical predictors alone for the development of modified Beaugerie disabling Crohn’s disease within 5 years of diagnosis. Statistical analysis: We censored development of modified Beaugerie disabling disease ≤ 90 days from diagnosis, and utilised time-to-event models using Royston–Parmar flexible parametric models. Risk group definitions were prespecified; for risk group definition 1, the high-risk patients were the top 40% with the greatest predicted risk, and the high-risk patients had an absolute risk ≥ 10% for risk group definition 2. The absolute risk cut-off was calculated by sorting patients by predicted risk and using the risk of the eighth (10% of 81) patient who developed modified Beaugerie disabling disease. Results: We studied 194 patients, median age 29, interquartile range 22–44 years. Within 5 years from diagnosis, 42% (81/194) ... |
| Document Type: | article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: | application/pdf |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 1366-5278; 2046-4924 |
| Relation: | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/41699939; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1366-5278; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2046-4924 |
| DOI: | 10.3310/THSN9956 |
| Availability: | https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/en/publications/d492e395-ff97-489e-ba0d-d265f825de5a; https://doi.org/10.3310/THSN9956; https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/164998738/3050307.pdf; https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105030415400 |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.E7B0A68A |
| Database: | BASE |