| Title: |
Population health and health sector cost impacts of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy: a modelling study. |
| Authors: |
Cobiac, Linda J; Law, Cherry; Smith, Richard; Cummins, Steven; Rutter, Harry; Rayner, Mike; Mytton, Oliver; Briggs, Adam DM; Tarp Jensen, Henning; Keogh-Brown, Marcus; Adams, Jean; White, Martin; Scarborough, Peter |
| Publisher Information: |
National Institute for Health and Care Research; Department of Public Health and Primary Care; //doi.org/10.3310/gjmw1501 |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository |
| Subject Terms: |
HEALTH ECONOMICS; HEALTH SECTOR COSTS; LIFE TABLE MODELLING; POPULATION HEALTH MODELLING; QUALITY-ADJUSTED LIFE-YEARS; SOFT DRINK TAX; SUGAR DRINK TAX |
| Description: |
BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy was introduced in April 2018, resulting both in changes in sugar levels in drinks and purchases of drinks. Both mechanisms could impact on the incidence and prevalence of raised body weight, diabetes and diet-related diseases, and therefore, have implications for economic costs to the health sector. OBJECTIVES: To model future impacts of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy on population health and health sector costs and to estimate net monetary benefit to the health system. DESIGN AND METHODS: Proportional multistate lifetable modelling study - open and closed cohort analyses. SETTING AND POPULATION: All children and adults in the United Kingdom. INTERVENTION: The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a two-tier levy of £0.18/l on drinks with between 5 and 8 g of total sugars/100 ml and of £0.24/l on drinks with ≥ 8 g of total sugars/100 ml. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We evaluated impact of the sugar reduction on: (1) prevalence of overweight and obesity, obesity-related diseases and dental health out to 2050 and (2) lifetime population health (measured in quality-adjusted life-years), change in costs to the health sector and the resulting net monetary benefit. DATA SOURCES: We estimated a per person reduction in sugar from a previously published interrupted time series analysis, which found an 8.0 g/household/week (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 13.6) reduction in sugar at 1 year after implementation. Our multistate lifetable model is parameterised using data from population health monitoring surveys, the Global Burden of Disease project, the Human Mortality Database and the Office for National Statistics. Health sector costs were obtained from Department of Health and Social Care budget allocations. RESULTS: The model predicts that the Soft Drinks Industry Levy will reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the United Kingdom by 0.18% points (95% uncertainty interval: 0.059 to 0.31) for males and by 0.20% points (0.064 to 0.34) for females. In the first 10 years ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| File Description: |
Print-Electronic; application/pdf |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/397276 |
| Availability: |
https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/397276 |
| Rights: |
Attribution 4.0 International ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.EE58043D |
| Database: |
BASE |