| Title: |
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability |
| Authors: |
Caillet, Justine; Jourdain, Nicolas; Mathiot, Pierre; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Urruty, Benoit; Burgard, Clara; Amory, Charles; Chekki, Mondher; Kittel, Christoph |
| Contributors: |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE); Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (Fédération OSUG)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP); Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA); Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (LOCEAN-NEMO R&D); Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN); Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)); École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)); Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité); Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)); Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA); ANR-19-CE01-0015,EIS,Elmer/Ice-Sheet : un modèle dédié à l'étude des changements rapides de calottes polaires(2019); ANR-22-CE01-0014,AIAI,Intelligence artificielle pour améliorer le couplage de la calotte Antarctique avec le système océan/atmosphère(2022); ANR-22-EXTR-0010,ISClim,Polar Ice sheets(2022); European Project: 869304,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2019-2,PROTECT(2020); European Project: 820575,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2,TiPACCs(2019); European Project: 101003536,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2020-2,ESM2025(2021); European Project: 101003826,H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2019-2020,H2020-LC-CLA-2020-2,CRiceS(2021) |
| Source: |
ISSN: 2190-4979. |
| Publisher Information: |
CCSD; European Geosciences Union / Copernicus Publications |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| Subject Terms: |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment |
| Description: |
International audience ; Identifying and quantifying irreducible and reducible uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to future climate change is essential for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy decision. However, the impact of the irreducible internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, remains poorly understood and quantified. Here, we characterise both the atmospheric and oceanic internal climate variability in a selection of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models (UKESM1-0-LL, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MPI-ESM1.2-HR) and estimate their impact on the Antarctic contribution to sea-level change over the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. To achieve this, we use a standalone ice-sheet model driven by the ocean through parameterised basal melting and by the atmosphere through emulated surface mass balance estimates. The atmospheric component of internal climate variability in Antarctica has a similar amplitude in the three CMIP6 models. In contrast, the amplitude of the oceanic component strongly depends on the climate model and its representation of convective mixing in the ocean. A low bias in sea-ice production and an overly stratified ocean lead to a lack of deep convective mixing which results in weak ocean variability near the entrance of ice-shelf cavities. Internal climate variability affects the Antarctic contribution to sea-level change until 2100 by 45 % to 93 % depending on the CMIP6 model. This may be a low estimate, as the internal climate variability in the CMIP models is likely underestimated. The effect of atmospheric internal climate variability on the surface mass balance overwhelms the effect of oceanic internal climate variability on the dynamical ice-sheet mass loss by a factor of 2 to 5, except in the Dronning Maud area and the Amundsen, Getz, and Aurora basins, where both contributions may be similar depending on the CMIP model. Based on these results, we recommend that ice-sheet model projections ... |
| Document Type: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: |
English |
| Relation: |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14417535; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14393502; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12755910; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13756240; https://doi.org/10.5067/X5LG68MH013O; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14414000; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//869304/EU/PROjecTing sEa-level rise : from iCe sheets to local implicaTions/PROTECT; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//820575/EU/Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components/TiPACCs; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101003536/EU/Earth system models for the future/ESM2025; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//101003826/EU/Climate relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and snow in the polar and global climate system/CRiceS; WOS: 001423315100001 |
| DOI: |
10.5194/esd-16-293-2025 |
| Availability: |
https://hal.science/hal-04973474; https://hal.science/hal-04973474v1/document; https://hal.science/hal-04973474v1/file/esd-16-293-2025.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025 |
| Rights: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| Accession Number: |
edsbas.FA0106 |
| Database: |
BASE |