Reliability and risk assessment

• Preface
• p. xix

• Acknowledgements
• p. xxi

• Notation
• p. xxiii

• Chapter 1
• An Introduction to Reliability and Risk Assessment
• p. 1

• 1.1
• Introduction
• p. 1

• 1.2
• Quantified reliability
• p. 2

• 1.3
• Reliability terminology
• p. 3

• 1.4
• Reliability programmes
• p. 6

• 1.5
• Quantified risk assessment
• p. 7

• 1.6
• Risk assessment studies
• p. 14

• 1.7
• Reliability in risk assessment
• p. 16

• 1.8
• Risk ranking
• p. 18

• 1.9
• Summary
• p. 20

• 1.10
• References
• p. 20

• Chapter 2
• Reliability Mathematics
• p. 21

• 2.1
• Probability theory
• p. 21

• 2.2
• Set theory
• p. 44

• 2.3
• Boolean algebra
• p. 51

• 2.4
• Summary
• p. 57

• 2.5
• Bibliography
• p. 58

• Chapter 3
• Qualitative Methods
• p. 59

• 3.1
• Introduction
• p. 59

• 3.2
• Hazard analysis
• p. 59

• 3.3
• Checklists
• p. 60

• 3.4
• Hazard and operability studies
• p. 62

• 3.5
• Rapid ranking
• p. 66

• 3.6
• Preliminary hazard analysis
• p. 70

• 3.7
• Reliability and maintainability screening
• p. 72

• 3.8
• Summary
• p. 74

• 3.9
• References
• p. 74

• Chapter 4
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
• p. 75

• 4.1
• Introduction
• p. 75

• 4.2
• Procedure for performing an FMEA/FMECA
• p. 76

• 4.3
• Criticality analysis
• p. 84

• 4.4
• Functional and hardware FMEA/FMECA examples
• p. 88

• 4.5
• Multi-criteria Pareto ranking
• p. 99

• 4.6
• Common cause screening
• p. 100

• 4.7
• Matrix method
• p. 101

• 4.8
• Risk priority number method of FMECA
• p. 103

• 4.9
• Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures
• p. 107

• 4.10
• Generic parts count
• p. 111

• 4.11
• Summary
• p. 113

• 4.12
• References
• p. 113

• Chapter 5
• Quantification of Component Failure Probabilities
• p. 115

• 5.1
• Introduction
• p. 115

• 5.2
• The failure process
• p. 119

• 5.3
• The repair process
• p. 127

• 5.4
• The whole failure/repair process
• p. 128

• 5.5
• Calculating unconditional failure and repair intensities
• p. 133

• 5.6
• Maintenance policies
• p. 140

• 5.7
• Failure and repair distribution with non-constant hazard rates
• p. 143

• 5.8
• Weibull analysis
• p. 149

• 5.9
• Summary
• p. 163

• 5.10
• References
• p. 164

• 5.11
• Bibliography
• p. 164

• Chapter 6
• Reliability Networks
• p. 165

• 6.1
• Introduction
• p. 165

• 6.2
• Simple network structures
• p. 167

• 6.3
• Complex networks
• p. 179

• 6.4
• Network failure modes
• p. 188

• 6.5
• Network quantification
• p. 196

• 6.6
• Summary
• p. 198

• 6.7
• Bibliography
• p. 199

• Chapter 7
• Fault Tree Analysis
• p. 201

• 7.1
• The fault tree model
• p. 201

• 7.2
• Examples of the use of fault tree symbols
• p. 206

• 7.3
• Boolean representation of a fault tree
• p. 211

• 7.4
• Component failure categories
• p. 211

• 7.5
• Fault tree construction
• p. 212

• 7.6
• Qualitative fault tree analysis
• p. 219

• 7.7
• Fault tree quantification
• p. 228

• 7.8
• Importance measures
• p. 254

• 7.9
• Expected number of system failures as a bound for systems unreliability
• p. 265

• 7.10
• Use of system performance measures
• p. 266

• 7.11
• Benefits to be gained from fault tree analysis
• p. 266

• 7.12
• Summary
• p. 267

• 7.13
• Bibliography
• p. 267

• Chapter 8
• Common Cause Failures
• p. 269

• 8.1
• Introduction
• p. 269

• 8.2
• Common mode and common cause failures
• p. 269

• 8.3
• Other common cause failure models
• p. 275

• 8.4
• Choice of CCF model
• p. 278

• 8.5
• Fault tree analysis with CCF
• p. 281

• 8.6
• Summary
• p. 284

• 8.7
• References
• p. 285

• Chapter 9
• Maintainability
• p. 287

• 9.1
• Introduction
• p. 287

• 9.2
• Maintainability analysis
• p. 287

• 9.3
• The maintainability model
• p. 289

• 9.4
• Maintainability prediction
• p. 290

• 9.5
• MTTR synthesis
• p. 295

• 9.6
• Summary
• p. 300

• 9.7
• Reference
• p. 300

• Chapter 10
• Markov Analysis
• p. 301

• 10.1
• Introduction
• p. 301

• 10.2
• Example--single-component failure/repair process
• p. 304

• 10.3
• General Markov state transition model construction
• p. 308

• 10.4
• Markov state equations
• p. 309

• 10.5
• Dynamic solutions
• p. 312

• 10.6
• Steady-state probabilities
• p. 313

• 10.7
• Standby systems
• p. 316

• 10.8
• Reduced Markov diagrams
• p. 320

• 10.9
• General three-component system
• p. 323

• 10.10
• Time duration in states
• p. 325

• 10.11
• Transient solutions
• p. 332

• 10.12
• Reliability modelling
• p. 337

• 10.13
• Summary
• p. 340

• 10.14
• Bibliography
• p. 340

• Chapter 11
• Simulation
• p. 341

• 11.1
• Introduction
• p. 341

• 11.2
• Uniform random numbers
• p. 342

• 11.3
• Direct simulation method
• p. 345

• 11.4
• Dagger sampling
• p. 347

• 11.5
• Generation of event times from distributions
• p. 349

• 11.6
• System logic
• p. 354

• 11.7
• System example
• p. 356

• 11.8
• Terminating the simulation
• p. 359

• 11.9
• Summary
• p. 360

• 11.10
• Bibliography
• p. 361

• Chapter 12
• Reliability Data Collection and Analysis
• p. 363

• 12.1
• Introduction
• p. 363

• 12.2
• Generic data
• p. 364

• 12.3
• In-service reliability data
• p. 366

• 12.4
• Data collection
• p. 368

• 12.5
• Data quality assurance
• p. 375

• 12.6
• Reliability data analysis
• p. 377

• 12.7
• Generic reliability data analysis
• p. 398

• 12.8
• Summary
• p. 411

• 12.9
• References
• p. 412

• Chapter 13
• Risk Assessment
• p. 413

• 13.1
• Introduction
• p. 413

• 13.2
• Background
• p. 413

• 13.3
• Major accident hazards
• p. 415

• 13.4
• Major accident hazard risk assessments
• p. 419

• 13.5
• Risk-based inspection and maintenance
• p. 434

• 13.6
• Summary
• p. 446

• 13.7
• References
• p. 447

• Chapter 14 Case study 1
• Quantitative safety assessment of the ventilation recirculation system in an undersea mine
• p. 449

• 14.1
• Introduction
• p. 449

• 14.2
• Recirculation fan system description
• p. 450

• 14.3
• Conditions for fan stoppage
• p. 451

• 14.4
• Scope of the analysis
• p. 452

• 14.5
• System description
• p. 453

• 14.6
• Fault tree construction
• p. 456

• 14.7
• Qualitative fault tree analysis of the system
• p. 458

• 14.8
• Component failure and repair data
• p. 462

• 14.9
• Quantitative system analysis
• p. 465

• 14.10
• Performance of the methane and carbon monoxide monitoring systems
• p. 467

• 14.11
• Variations in system design and operation
• p. 468

• 14.12
• Conclusions
• p. 474

• Chapter 14 Case study 2
• Failure mode and effects criticality analysis of gas turbine system
• p. 475

• 14.13
• Introduction
• p. 475

• 14.14
• Gas turbine FMECA
• p. 475

• 14.15
• Discussion
• p. 486

• 14.16
• Summary
• p. 487

• Chapter 14 Case study 3
• In-service inspection of structural components (application to conditional maintenance of steam generators)
• p. 489

• 14.17
• Introduction
• p. 489

• 14.18
• Data needed for safety and maintenance objectives
• p. 491

• 14.19
• The steam generator maintenance programme
• p. 493

• 14.20
• Expected benefits of the probabilistic ISI base programme
• p. 493

• 14.21
• Data for safety and data for maintenance
• p. 495

• 14.22
• The probabilistic fracture mechanics model
• p. 497

• 14.23
• Safety and maintenance-orientated results
• p. 500

• 14.24
• Sensitivity analysis
• p. 503

• 14.25
• Conclusions
• p. 506

• Chapter 14 Case study 4
• Business-interruption risk analysis
• p. 507

• 14.26
• Introduction
• p. 507

• 14.27
• Risk assessment
• p. 508

• 14.28
• Combined-cycle plant assessment
• p. 509

• 14.29
• Data and basic assumptions
• p. 510

• 14.30
• Plant availability prediction
• p. 512

• 14.31
• Risk estimation
• p. 516

• 14.32
• Conclusions
• p. 519

• 14.33
• References
• p. 520

• Appendix A
• p. 523

• Appendix B
• p. 527

• Glossary
• p. 529

• Index
• p. 535